Excluding the 2020 Covid (which is a very big if), globally over 2010-2019, U.S. stock performance was number 1 with everywhere else way behind. This correlates with the following in the U.S.:
1] the outperformance of its GDP compared to most other developed countries.
2] leadership in new disruptive technologies.
3] banking systems repaired after the 2008 recession more quickly than in Europe.
4] company earnings have dramatically risen, even with the $US dollar rising against the Euro and Yen
1 Will U.S. fundamental economic advantage over developed countries continue into the next decade?
Global low growth, low inflation. This will also affect the U.S. more in the next decade than in the past one, but a positive differential will persist.
2 Will the U.S. premium on valuation remain in place?
Valuation premiums of very large U.S. tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet) will be impacted by political factors of regulation, but will remain in effect in the next decade, but at a reduced level.
Last decades outperformance positives were in:
1] industrials, consumer discretionary and financials;
2] tech companies
3] the strong dollar
The U.S. market valuations now exceed the eurozone, U.K., Japan or emerging markets: a] forward P/E ratios for Japan and emerging markets fell over the decade. b] Price-to-book multiples in the U.S. have also risen higher proportionately.
3 Will negatives relating to the Political Aspects of Trade drag down our market edge?
Yes. Foreign regulators now pay more attention to profits made by the largest U.S. companies, leaving U.S. companies more vulnerable as objectively since 2012 profits from overseas proportionately outperform profits from domestic sources.
Anti-global sentiment is growing in Europe.
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